"the daily rundown" starts right now with chuck todd. have a great weekend. we're back tomorrow sniet. as we fall back from daylight savings shs the candidates are using every minute of that extra hour. president obama bounces from one battle ground state to another using ohio as his airline hub. he's using all the hot spots trying to rally his base and any undecided voters he thinks are left. governor romney is also racing against the clock, tweaking his argument. and in case you forgot, we've got more than two guys running on tuesday, tonight we'll break down all of the battles, particularly for congress and who will decide control of it and what the next president can get done. good evening from democracy plaza. it's saturday, november 3, 2012. this is a prime time edition of "the daily rundown."

we're taking a look at how we got here. presidential elections that aren't close are actually odd. no republican has gotten more than 300 electoral votes since 1988. only four democrats in history have gotten more than 53% of the vote. bottom line, this is 1976 meets 2000 meets 2004. in other words, it's a very close race. so how did we get here? the president began this campaign weighed down by a troubled economy and still faces a jobless rate higher than any incumbent seeking re-election since fdr. in the president's first six months there was a lot of money spent some of it by choice, most of it by need. the wall street bail dpts out, the federal stimulus and the auto bailout. at the time most of us said as gm goes, so goes the presidency.

>> you know this really is a big one. it's kennedy in the steel industry, it's reagan the air traffic controllers. this is a big moment. >> and on tuesday, this race could come down to how that decision has echoed in the state of ohio where government spending wasn't popular and neither was health care. three cruel summers began with the angry town halls in 2009 that soured the public on the health care law that eventually passed. of course there was that 2010 bp oil spill which shook faith in government a little bit. republicans won the house with the largest gain for either party since 1948. >> this is something that i think every president needs to go through. now, i'm not recommending for every future president that they took a shellacking like i did last night. >> after that, the debt ceiling

crisis in 2011. and then the president began to string together a few victories. it started after the 2010 elections reconciling with former president bill clinton who made his debut as a character witness in 2010. in delivering a 1-2 punch that now has become a staple in this campaign. >> i've been keeping the first lady waiting for about half an hour. so i'm going to take off. >> i don't want to make her mad. please go. >> you're in good hands. >> the president signed the repeal of don't ask, don't tell. he put together a checklist of accomplishments that you hear now on the campaign trail. withdrawing the finest troops from iraq. >> tonight i can report to the american people and to the world that the united states has conducted an operation that killed osama bin laden, the leader of al qaeda. >> he put together a coalition

in building intensity with his combas, by supporting gay marriage, easing immigration rules sms and the obama campaign focused single mindedly on beating mitt romney as early as it could. the president has since caught a few breaks. the job less rate fell blow 8%. the lowest level since the month of the president took office. but tuesday's elections will show was it enough to off-set the president's debate performance in denver? >> you know, four years ago i said that i'm not a perfect man and i wouldn't be a perfect president and that's probably a promise that governor romney thinks i've kept. >> that said, the president might be in a position of ekeking out. >> making sure that health care choices for women are controlled by women, as opposed to -- and i'm going to ask young people to pay for more college.

>> you hear hope and change has been replaced by block and tackle. >> mitt romney's road to election day he dropped out of the presidential race in twoit and endorsed john mccain. from the outside, romney's strength was also a liability. he was a sbash an moderate republican with midwestern roots in a party that some call too conservative, evangelical and republican. as conservatives soured on the idea of a health care mandate, romney tried to inoculate himself on his acheeft as governor. he says we can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country and it can be done without letting government take over health care. and it was done without government taking over health care.

in june 2011 at a farm in new hampshire, romney officially announced his second bid for the presidency. >> just one of the guys running. >> the first element of becoming the front runner was keeping viable challengerers out of the race and one by one they bowed out. finally the summer of 2011 a viable challenger got in, rick perry. they all surged to leads in the national polls before self destructing. finally romney ended up one on one with rick santorum. iowa where romney appeared to eke out an eight-vote win, a few weeks later santorum was declared the victory and then ohio. >> we are actually looking at recount provisions in the state of ohio. our models have it that close.

>> romney's struggle in ohio was in the 2008 op-ed called for a managed bankruptcy but said the government should only guarantee private loans. detroit needs a durn around not a check. the piece was titled let detroit go bankrupt. romney survived the primary gaunt let and let republican super pacs hammer the president on the hair. the campaign spend a lot of time defining romney before romney was able to define obama. he was criticized for taking a week off in july. and for bungling that foreign trip to england, israel and poland. he announced paul ryan as his running mate but that didn't produce the bump he needed. as the focus of the race turned to medicare and the ryan budget. the republican convention was

disrupted by weather and a guy talking to an empty chair. and then mid september, the leaked video of mitt romney's 47% remark surfaced. the first presidential debate, romney bested obama in front of 66 million people and began to benefit from mement tum. and then hurricane sandy hit. on tuesday romney will try to unseat an incumbent president, he's trying to knock a party out of power after just one term. while the president is targeting each part of his coalition with a handful of small arguments, romney is counting on winning the large one. >> he made a lot of promises, but those promises he couldn't keep. and the difference between us, he made promises he couldn't keep, i'm making promises i have kept and i will keep them for the american people.

>> so where does that leave us? the two campaigns believe passionately in two different realities. the president obama campaign believes the countries demographics have changed the etor roert in your favor. the romney campaign believes you have the momentum to swing over. it's possible we are headed for a 50/50 split. it all comes down to nine states or seven or five? whatever the result. polarization is hardening. the house has changed hands three times in the last two decades. two of those times have been in the last six years. red states are getting redder and blue states are getting bluer. the even in the swing states, giving county maps that watch work look if you will. shifting demographics are changing, the makeup of the electorate in 1980 whites made up nine of every ten voters. but by 2008 that number dropped to 74%.

one of tuesday's most important predictors will be that important makeup. it's very possible that the president could win with the lowest share of blue collar whites since 1984 ba the republican party is likely to get the lowest share of latino and african-americans in its history. we're a 50/50 country deciding whether taxes go up or down, how you get health insurance. the fundamental role of government in your life could be decided. the great challenge for the winner will be more divided than we've had in a long time. all right. now we're going to get into the weeds. up next, time for a very heavy dose of flova. the view from the ground florida, virginia and ohio. here's a look at the president's schedule.

romney's schedule, looks like he's making some time for the key stone state. and the vice president stopping by "hardball" tomorrow night. we're locked up right here in democracy plaza. @ñ

>> we need you, virginia. we've got to take back america. i'm counting on you. >> they're betting on cynicism. ohio, i'm betting on you. i'm betting on you. >> you have na responsibility, you have that opportunity and on november the 6th, florida can make mitt romney the next president of the united states.

>> ladies and gentlemen, with you we can win. we win florida, we win this election! >> well, in 2000 the election turned on the state of florida. in 2004 it was ohio that was the key. in 2008, virginia found itself in the center spotlight. collectively i've been calling them flohva. until florida our new poll has president obama up. ohio we still have the president holding his lead. 51% to 45%. and in a recent poll of likely voters in virginia, the president was up 2 points, a statistical tie and nbc news has it's own coming out tomorrow morning. look at the ad spending in these three states. noern half a billion collectively in the mega states of flohva.

they're not just spending money there, they're spending time. the president will have visited the sunshine state 14 times, for mitt romney it's 16. president obama will have made 19 stops in ohio, governor romney will be there 21 times. so let's get to our special panel. adam smith is the political editor, chris booker, wcmh and larry sabado. larry, let me start with you. the state of virginia, last time it was the closest to the country, the national popular vote. it was the one point off if you will of what obama -- mccain's numbers were, does the winner of the popular vote win virginia, larry?

>> i think virginia is very very, close, chuck. i think you could argue that virginia is one of the two or three closest states in the country right now. it's funny to have a panel of florida, ohio and virginia. florida and ohio are used to this attention. they get it every four years. we used to be the bulgaria of american politics and now we've turned into the paris. or that's how we feel. i would say on the whole, having talked to both sides repeatedly, they both insist that they're trackings show their candidate up a point or two. and i have no reason to disbelief them. that leads me to believe that it's very close. president obama would love to have virginia, because if he gets it, he really blocks most of the reasonable pathways to 270, assuming he keeps ohio and he's clearly ahead there. and governor romney really needs virginia.

he's got to have it. >> speaking of gotting to have a state, let's go down to adam smith in florida. you guys had a poll out today, 51-45 that had romney ahead. this seems to be saturday same story that larry is hearing in virginia, i hear in florida, where the two sides insist they're ahead because they believe in two different world views of what the electorate is going to look like. >> i hear the same thing that both sides are convinced they're up by a point or two and this is a margin of error race. today was the last day of early voting in florida. democrats are up about 104,000 votes over republican votes, but that's significantly less than the advantage they had four years ago. >> a number i heard adam was 160, i think, is what somebody told me if they get to 160, 200, somewhere in that range, they think they can win -- that they'll get enough on election day to pull that off. that sounds like they're going to fall short. >> it's sounds like they're going to fall short and we've got early voting lines of five

hours in more in places like miami. i saw a thousand people waiting in line in st. petersburg today. if they come slightly short, it may not matter in the electoral college but i think there may be cutting back of early election days. >> chris booker i know the state made an announcement today, is it over or are still more early vote to come? >> there's more early vote to come tomorrow. obviously sunday is a big day, chuck. you'll have the souls to the polls effort of trying to get out the african-american vote. we have evangelicals coming in. i've heard that rand paul is supposed to be where casick lives, the state of ohio, the effort to get out both sides of the vote which my sources tell me is very very close.

>> k chris, the jeep ad that governor romney ran and there is's been some hammering about it quietly, has that been a decisive thing, are we going to look back at this and say romney came up short in ohio because of the jeep ad? >> you know, chuck. i think it's going to be fascinating. when you think of one of the earliest decisions that the president made was that auto bailout that that may be the defining issue. and my democrat sources say that it just showed desperation, it smacked of desperation and even some republicans have told me that he needed to take on the auto bailout sooner rather than what happened in this last week with this ad in toledo. >> larry, if you could have only one county to watch, what county would you pick? >> probably lauden county. president obama doesn't have to win it.

he did win it four years ago, but he has to come close. because he needs northern virginia to turn in a very strong performance. >> adam smith, same question to you. if you could only have one county's results in the state of florida. what county do you want? >> i wish you could give me three. if i had one i would have to go with hillsborough county. >> the other two? >> miami and orange county. >> you want to know what the gaps would be there. >> and chris booker same to you. >> don't you want to see hamilton county went for obama in 2008, but traditional republican stronghold. you would like to see where they break on tuesday. >> see, we don't need three states. we've got it down to three counties. chris booker, larry and adam smith in tampa bay, thank you all. appreciate it.

next up, your "daily rundown" guide what to watch for as the wults came in on tuesday. but first today's trivia yes. name the only two states that flipped their presidential vote in both 2004 and 2008. gore, bush and obama. that's your hint. the answer coming up on this special prime time edition of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. [ mother bear ] you're not using too much are you, hon? [ female announcer ] charmin ultra soft is so soft you'll have to remind your family they can use less. it's made with extra cushions that are soft and more absorbent. plus you can use four times less. charmin ultra soft.

woont to give you an hour by hour viewing guide for the next two days and for election night. going to deep dive into what states you should be watching and what the early results will tell us about the outcome. first let's set the stage at the look of where the candidates are headed over the remaining days.

three more time sunday, monday and saturday here. it looks like an airline hub for air force 1. he's still getting others in. he's still getting a bit of colorado and florida, but look at this. the final day, on monday. ohio, wisconsin and iowa. there's a reason for it. let's take a look at mitt romney's schedule as you can see here. it includes plenty of ohio. he gets there twice. he's throwing in pennsylvania, though. what pennsylvania is, is this a position of strength or is this the ohio insurance policy if it doesn't come through? because here's the other problem he has because he's also gone to new hampshire a couple of times and he's closing there. florida and virginia and ohio don't get him to 270. the state of new hampshire would get him to 270. and even if it's florida, virginia and pennsylvania, he still needs two more going in. now let's go through the poll closing business here, by 9:00 p.m. polls will have closed here

t and here's the way to look at it. if, say, at 7:00, virginia is too close to call, that's not good news for romney. you have the feeling as if romney is going to overperform the national number by a point or two in virginia. if that's a too-close-to-call state, and we haven't called it by 9:00, i think the folks will be worried. if by 9:00 we haven't called pennsylvania, then suddenly the folks in chicago better be nervous because this is a state that hasn't been on the battleground but the assumption has been there is a built-in vote there thanks to philadelphia. now what about quick calls. let's say if we call florida and virginia fairly quickly. well, that tells us this could be, and we have not yet called, for instance, ohio and that's too close to call. well sed evenly that could be a

pretty good romney night. let's do it here. what if we call ohio early. there's going to be a lot of sort of that's the ball game type thing. there are still paths for romney without ohio, but the point is how quickly do we call those states? it's an interesting way to watch the night. let me quickly of course throw you through a couple of scenarios and what i want to do tonight is sort of what is the most narrow way for things to go and what is the quickest way? the quickest way for the president to get to 270 is ohio and wisconsin. and that's what they're counting on. when we talk about the midwest fire wall, that's what we talk about. so when you've got 34r, he needs all these states. he needs florida, he needs virginia, he needs colorado, and he needs new hampshire and this is a way to do it without ohio. that's the one piece of good news. what if he can't get a wisconsin? wisconsin would put him over the top. what's his fastest way to get there? you put ohio back over here and

he could do it then without colorado and without iowa. so his fastest way to 270 would be florida, virginia, ohio and new hampshire. so there's a way to watch this night. there's a way to watch it before 9:00. what we haven't called can tell you about where the night is headed. next on the low down on the down ballot races. you're watching a special prime time he designation of "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪

there are other important races out there that we're watching. 33 senate seats up for grabs. believe it or not there are sa of them that we think will be decided by less than 10 points. it's the mother lode of great

races. six are in so-called red states, and three are in blue states. joining me now, nbc news and editor, charlie cook. this has been a great year for senate races. >> yeah, it's a shame. if this were a mid term election, they would get new credit. >> i'm going to put up. what we have is this is base d on the cook map right now. this is everything that's likely that's in red or blue. so we start this way and we have 15 of them. so we're going to quickly run down the ones that you don't have in toss-up anymore but are lean in the presidential states. hit me. >> pennsylvania. >> tom casey -- tom smith scared bob casey but casey is going to hold. >> ohio? >> you skipped on me.

>> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could.

>> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the red states. nebraska. >> it tightened up, fisher wins. >> bob kerry keeps it under ten. >> missouri? >> mccaskill wins. it's like philadelphia in the east, pittsburgh in the west and alabama in between. kansas city, st. louis and alabama in between.

>> indiana? >> close but i think donely edges, which again obama is going to lose a state, but donely i think will win. but it will be very competitive. >> you know, we skipped one of the big swing ones, wisconsin. what's going to be closer, wisconsin or virginia? >> i have you silent. i have you silent. is wisconsin that close? who would you put on tamy or tommy? >> i think i would go edge to tommy but very close. >> you don't even know what the makeup we've made here. >> maine, massachusetts, connecticut. does anything go red in those three? >> no. >> none of them go red. we're going give independent to maine? >> yeah. >> you're going to have elizabeth warren and scott murphy holding on, chris murphy holding on. guess what you end up having? a net zero.

53-48. >> just think how many billions of dollars spent. >> what does it say -- it's a converse we're going to have. what does i say we're going to spend $6 billion and we may have a status quo election house president and the presidency. >> it cancels itself out and this is the opposite of the last three elections. now there is no way one way or the other. >> let's talk quickly about the house. i know there's been, tons of redistricting, certainly plenty of competitive interesting house races and yet i think the stunning thing for a lot of people this week was democrats quietly admitting they may not pick up a seat. >> it's entirely possible you could have it break even. the republicans won when the maps were drawn and they probably pulled 15 seats that would have gone democratic off. so instead of looking at even or maybe democrats picking up 15, 20 seats, we're talking about democrats breaking even or maybe picking up 5.

>> who is the leader of the house democrats. >> the question is does nancy pelosi leave soon or does she want to wait through the budget deal and then leave. i don't think sheelt 'be in congress a year from today. and the question is do they do generational change. >> look at this. you didn't plan on this, i don't think. but status quo. >> i heard we were going to do this, i hated you. >> thank you, charlie. i spoke one on one request seven of the 11 snars that are leaving this year. if you go to our website, you can see the interviews on all of those issues and all of them talk about what's wrong with washington and what could make it work better. we're back in democracy plaza and some of the stranger ways to predict who will win on tuesday. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪

a now a different way to predict the winner of the presidential race. you may heard of the red skins rule. when they win their last home game prior to a presidential election, that election is won by the party that won the popular vote in the previous election. when they lose the last home game, it is won by the party that lost the popular vote in the previous election. this rule is 18 for 18. it had an addendum to it because the one year it could have been wrong when they lost but president bush won re-election. but the popular vote. in 2008, the phillys won the world series, obama carried pennsylvania and he went on to win the election.

in '96 the yankees won, clinton carried new york. tigers won, reagan carried mitch, you get the picture? we could keep going. you get to go all the way back to herbert hoover. the world series champs this year come from california. and one of the newest predictors is in college football. the winner of the university of alabama-lsu game. let's bring our saturday super panel. tom brokaw, how about that?

>> that's for the people of alabama and lsu care about more than the president. >> i'm confident in that prediction. >> tom, i want to talk about this larger issue that i think no matter who wins or loses. the winning candidate has to govern a nation that is really, really divided. >> yeah, it's not going to be a mandate it appears from all the polling that we're seeing and just the anecdotal evidence as well, i think it's going to be tougher for president obama if he gets re-elected because it does appear that the house will remain in the hands of the republicans and a lot of those are tea party members who will be going back to the house. i've been talk to go some of them. they have not given up the cause, the crusade. they're not going away. for governor romney, he likes to talk about how well he got along with the democrats when he was in the massachusetts state house. it's a different set of democrats that he'll be dealing with if he gets to be president who are in the senate and it appears that they'll hang on to

the senate. >> one of the things that may be going on here, that some of the republicans may be hinting at, al of you are new yorkers, and the idea that some shou they froze the race that we know, but did it actually help the president? maybe all of us are too consumed to know about it for sure. but eroll, the cooperation between bloomberg, cuomo, chris tea and the president couldn't have hert him. >> it shows the guy can do his day job at a minimum. and you know, freezing the race for a few days really hurts romney. he had a lot of ground to make up in some key states and he just got pushed off the page. he didn't have any active roll that would take him into the news cycle related to sandy and marginally, around the edges a lot of the worst scenarios happen to be republican strong holds. it so happens a lot of the places that were devastated were

in more conservative areas. >> when christie said he was thanking president obama, two days before it was about how the president was terrible at bipartisanship and the mitt romney presidency would be good at it. >> i think it takes a big storm to make a big case for big government and i think that's what we've seen. you have a situation where romney was calling for emergency services to be pushed back to the states and for there to be sharing, but when you've got a block of 12 states sitting together. >> kelly, one of the reasons i was told that mitt romney was so doing this bipartisan message is suburban women. >> absolutely. >> and women were tired of this polarization. >> they are and you know they're going to decide the election.

many of them who voted for obama last time around may have been on the fence this time around. i think on that point i think one of the issues of vurnables for the president has been this leadership issues question not being a strong enough leader. voila, the week before the election he clearly has shown leadership on this issue that many suburban women will be able to work with him and get something done. >> is this blaming sandy by republicans a little unfair? >> if they do blame it on sandy, it will be unfair. i think if the president wins it's going to be the get out the vote that he's going to put together across the country in ohio and all of the key states. he'll win with the latino vote, with the african-american vote, with women generally, with what labor impact still remains in those states. so he's going to do a patch work thing but they're very confident about that. what i do think that the month

of october has told us is that the absence of passion for either one of these candidates, because the national got moved -- >> so easily. >> they really did. they just moved around the landscape, wake up tuesday morning i'm going to go the other way. >> that remind me of 2000. bush-gore was that way. the passion wasn't for each of them. >> that's right. i agree with that. and i think that may be one reason it's time to bring on bill clinton as we're seeing. >> it is also a reminder. this is why i think, what if they're both right. what if they're both ride about their models and we end up with this collision of recounts. i think it's more possible than people realize. >> i do, too. and having been through it in 2000. >> when we come back, we're going to do a little bit of surprises. >> i only have a few years left. >> you haven't seen it all, i promise you. >> 269-269. then you can say you've seen it all.

trivia time. we asked name the only two states that flipped their presidential vote both in 2004 and in 2008. they were gore, bush, obama. they why iowa and new mexico. could they flip again? we'll be right back. from democracy plaza. [ male announcer ] sheets or bar, how do you get your bounce? i'm a sheets girl, but i don't just put'em in the dryer to freshen up my clothes. i put'em in my shoes, i put'em in my car, i put'em in my vases. girl, i been put'n'em for as long as i can remember. [ male announcer ] how do you get your bounce? [ woman ] sheets, i put'em!

bold list. >> mine is something that should not be a surprise. we have a record number of women running in the house and senate this year. women make up only 17 percent of the house and the senate. prediction here, surprising, it will be truly the year of the woman in 2012 and that women will increase that percentage about 17%. >> i promise you, in the senate, it will be at least 20 percent and maybe 21 or 22.

you love the unforseen. >> i've got a new surprise. my surprise will be if she's right. [ laughter ] my surprise is not so much a surprise, but something to keep your eye on. i think republicans across the country are going to tighten their holds on state capitals or state legislatures with long-time conservatives. it's how you spend education money, it's a tertiary that we don't talk about a lot. it changes the political endskap. >> and it certainly does the issue of governing. i'm just going to say that we'll have at least two states uncalled by 4:00 a.m. and we're going to be hanging -- you know, brian williams is going to hand it directly to matt lauer. we're just going to keep blowing

through our shameless plugs. errol? >> if you want to know anything that's going on with the effects of the storm, you have to watch ny1. >> okay, my monday column on time.com about what the markets are going to do if romney wins and if obama wins and it's not what you think. >> for the women's perspective, and the year of the woman. >> it's going to be a bigger one than people realize in the sfat. >> tom? >> my guess is that by wednesday morning, a lot of the country is going to say we went through all of this for this? >> $6 billion. my shameless plug is to anna tuman, her brother, he had gas in his car. thank you very much. that's it for this special prime time edition of the special daily run down. we're going to see you here on monday at our regular time.

a special saturday edition of martin bashir is next.

good evening, americans, and welcome to "the ed show." coming to you live from democracy plaza on rockefeller center. three days until the election. mitt romney throws a desperate hail mary, president obama is hanging with katy perry and the latest on how hurricane sandy is affecting early voting in ohio. this is "the ed show." let's get to work. >> ohio, we know what change looks like. and what he's offering ain't it. >> three days and the obama campaign is pumped. the romney campaign is still playing with shiny objects. >> did you see what president obama said today? he asked his supporters to vote for revenge. >> alex wagner and michael

steele on a huge day on the campaign trail. early voting rages on in ohio. state senator nina turner has the latest as the righties continue to delude themselves about the buckeye state. >> mitt romney will win ohio and he's going to win ohio easily. >> i think ohio is going to be a squeaker, maybe an 80,000 to 110,000 vote margin but i think the republicans are likely to take it. >> bob strom is here and he'll set the record straight. >> and bill clinton continues to slam the door on romney in the state of virginia. >> if you really believe we're all in this together, re-elect president obama. >> as katy perry lights up the badger state. >> wisconsin, are you ready? >> we'll have all the latest from today's massive day of campaigning. good to have you with us tonight. with just about 50 hours until election day, the candidates are making their closing arguments like never before and in the battleground state of ohio, president obama is definitely on

the move. the latest nbc/marist poll has the president up. he is pushing hard about the dishonest ad about jeep moving jobs to china. here's president obama in ohio today. >> you've got folks who work at the jeep plant who have been calling their employers worried asking if their jobs were being shipped to china. you've heard about this. everybody heard about this? and the reason they're worried is because governor romney is running ads saying that jeep is shipping jobs to china. there's only one problem. it's not true. >> it's just not ohio where president obama is surging. in 22 new polls of battleground states, the president leads in 19 of them. the obama campaign is taking nothing for granted, however, and today joe biden put the

romney campaign into perspective. >> i want to remind you, this is the end of daylight saving time tonight. it's mitt romney's favorite time of the year because he gets to turn the clock back. he wants to turn that clock back so desperately. this time he can really do it tonight, it happens. >> in between all this hectic campaigning, president obama visited fema for an update on storm relief. president obama's best new buddy, october surprise chris christie of new jersey, extended early voting in the state of new jersey today. from the romney campaign, another sign of desperation. here's governor romney in dubuque, iowa today. >> you know, yesterday the president said something you may have already heard that i found troubling, spoke to an audience and said voting is the best revenge. he's asking his supporters to vote for revenge. i'm asking you to vote for love of country.

>> here's exactly what president obama said in springfield, ohio. >> don't boo, vote. vote. voting is the best revenge. >> that was a riff on what president obama says every time the crowd boos when they hear the name mitt romney. the president says don't boo, vote. this time he tossed in, okay, a line with the word revenge in it. of course, revenge was probably not the best word choice, but it was truly just a throwaway line. the romney campaign, what do they do? well, they wasted no time capitalizing on the word revenge. they took out an ad, put it in their stump speeches already. in an 11th hour attempt to change the subject, the republican candidates have both gone to pennsylvania in the past 24 hours because they see that ohio is slipping away. get your cell phones out. we want to know what you think tonight. tonight a question, will

romney's last-minute attacks on president obama work? text "a" for yes, text "b" for no to 622639. you can always leave a comment at our blog at ed.msnbc.com. tonight, chris jansing. great to have you with us. one of the big hurdles that president obama has right now is to get white working males on his side. how do you see that playing out from what you've been able to see on the ground in ohio? >> that's exactly why he went to lake county today. it's a place i know well, i was born and raised in that county and let me tell you, it was a tight one in 2008. barack obama pulled it out by less than 1%, but it's a county that's 95% white and it's a place where barack obama believes that his economic message will resonate. he was hitting it hard in his speech today. the crowd was cheering. but make no mistake, the message

that resonates here in ohio and particularly in the 82 out of 88 counties that have businesses that are related to the auto industry is the controversy that's gone on over that widely discredited ad put out by the romney campaign. and if you talk to people on the ground, one of the things that they'll tell you is that they think there has been a backlash against that ad. that the voters here know exactly what's going on in the auto industry. one out of every eight jobs is as you've said many times tied to the auto industry and they say they're not being fooled by it. i also talked to several members inside the obama campaign. they also believe that actually that ad has worked very strongly in their favor, ed. >> so this entire narrative that the romney campaign has come up with, the candidate trying to reinvent himself on the automobile industry, would you go so far as to say you have a gut feeling that this has backfired on romney in ohio? >> well, look. i know the people who live in that region where the president

was today. i know my family, they all are working class. my father was working class. he worked in a factory nearby. and i think they're looking for a level of respect that they know what the truth is. and i think that's why the president was hitting this so hard. look, he has not done well, as you know, with white working class voters. it's been hard for him to hit 40% nationwide. but in ohio, that number in the most recent poll that i've seen is closer to 5%. so they know that their message is working in their favor. and i can tell you from conversations i've had on the ground, and it certainly is the belief of the obama campaign and the folks i talked to yesterday, that that ad has hurt mitt romney more than it's helped him by far. >> chris, what are you hearing on the ground about the legal avenues that the obama campaign is taking to make sure that the integrity of the vote is what it needs to be? >> well, they're serious about it, ed. 2,500 lawyers on the ground in

the state of ohio. 600 just in cuyahoga county, that is where cleveland is where they have concerns about voter suppression. they have done an negligence about new software that has been installed in some of those electronic voting minutes and they're raising questions about whether those results can be trusted. now, the secretary of state who you know has been involved in a number of controversies says it's in a limited number of counties, 44, which would be half. and he said that he believes that it's not going to be a concern. but i can tell you that come election day, if problems do occur, and if this race is closer than that most recent 6% poll would indicate, there are going to be lots of lawyers, and not just those lawyers, they've been holding training sessions for poll workers and

other people to get involved to make sure that this integrity of this election is upheld. >> all right. chris jansing reporting from the great state of ohio tonight. great to have you on "the ed show." and let's turn to alex wagner and michael steele, former chairman of the republican national committee. >> great to be with you, ed. >> you bet. alex, you first. this word "revenge", it probably wasn't the best word the president could have used, but it didn't take the romney camp very long to jump on it. is this a last-ditch desperation? >> i think actually if you look in the dictionary under last-ditch campaign effort, you see this line of attack. the president has had a number of sort of throwaway lines that the romney camp has had to make hay out of. at this late stage in the game it shows a sign of desperation.

this is totally taken out of context and as you said, this is something the president says all the time. the spirit of it is go out to the polls. "the washington post" has a pretty strong assessment of why this is so in some ways despicable on the national stage. the romney campaign thinks so little of the american voter at this point, you know, that we don't need the specifics, that you can get away with these small attacks to obfuscate the larger message which is that we don't know what romney is about, and he refuses to talk about it, and he hasn't taken questions from reporters and this is your closing argument? >> they've not only taken out an ad but they have repeated this almost half a dozen times today on the stump. what do you make of it? is this really a focal point now for the romney campaign and their closing argument of the american people? >> i don't think it's so much a focal point but just a reemphasis, just sort of making the point as you saw in the rest of the clip there, the contrast, the president wants to talk about your vote being a matter of revenge and i want to talk to you about your vote being about america.

so i think they were setting that up. i mean, look, i get the joke. if romney had used that word in the context of something else, i doubt you or anyone else would be as sanguine about the use of that word. >> i would have led the broadcast with it. >> i know you would have. >> i just admitted to alex that i think it was a very poor choice of wording by the president, and that's why the president didn't repeat it. >> can i say something? chairman, chairman, does anybody really think that president obama is out for revenge? i mean just in terms of strategy. >> of course not. look. it's the end of a very, very long campaign. it's the heat of battle. i get everything you're saying about the numbers and all the put-down on romney and his lack of telling us and i have problems with the lack of specificity that's come from this campaign. i think if they had been more specific they would probably be a lot further ahead.

but look at the numbers. if all that you're saying is true and america is so put off by romney, then why is this presidency on the brink of collapse next tuesday? why is it -- why is this race so tight? >> come on. michael, honestly. you think that president obama's campaign and presidency is on the brink of collapse? >> i'm just saying -- i'm saying look at the numbers. the president is not running away with this election, ed. >> no, he's not run ago way with it but -- >> you can cherry pick your way to where he's leading by two or three points and extrapolate. >> a tight election was predicted all along and stated all along by both camps months ago. we knew it was going to come down to just a few people sitting on the fence ended up making a decision and making a difference in this campaign. >> and -- >> and why was that? why was that? because of the state of the economy, the way people are looking at these issues, and dissecting the campaign. >> chairman, if you look at how the two campaigns are being run at this stage and who has the sand slipping through their fingers, you look at the behavior of the

candidates on the stump, the messaging, the strategy, who would you rather be? >> who would you rather be? >> i think i, quit frankly, think the romney campaign, even despite the pause with sandy, and that took a lot of momentum that karl rove noted in his piece today, i think the romney campaign has done an expert job of keeping themselves in game against a formidable political machine that the president has particularly coming off that first debate and really keeping this thing to the wire. we're down now, ed, to two states. >> we are. >> of possibly calling this election. virginia and ohio. >> but, michael, in closing here, you think that the romney camp has done a heck of a job keeping themselves in the campaign with all that money that they've had out there? come on, now. there's no question that the country knew it was going to come down to the final hours of people making a decision, so much money, so much intensity, we're a divided country. i just think that when you look at ohio, what is dogging mitt romney right now is the way he has handled this automobile

industry. what's your thought on that? >> oh, no question about that. i am totally on your page on that front. i thought that was a little ham handed and really put the campaign into an awkward position interest to then wrap around and clean it up. >> alex, is the automobile the waterloo for mitt romney? >> absolutely. 110%. the fact that they did not see this coming is shocking. i go back to every campaign comes back to the candidate. the fact that mitt romney did what he did, wrote that op-ed and then ran for president and did not think he was going to have to do any triage on that is a sign of a very flawed candidate or someone who totally underestimates the american worker. >> ed? when you're calling him president- elect romney on wednesday, we can talk about that again. >> call me. >> i might have to take a few months off. >> i know you will. come to my place. >> you're buying the pizza, chairman.

>> michael steele, alex wagner, great to have you on. no, i'm not taking any time off. share your thoughts with us on twitter and on facebook. we always want to know what you think. coming up, three days until the election, yet some righties are already calling ohio for mitt romney. democratic strategist bob strom shrum, of course, will be here to explain why they are wrong. stay tuned, you're watching "the ed show". in their favor. [ fishing rod casting line, marching band playing ] [ male announcer ] the rhythm of life. [ whistle blowing ] where do you hear that beat? campbell's healthy request soup lets you hear it... in your heart. [ basketball bouncing ] heart healthy. great taste. mmm... [ male announcer ] sounds good. it's amazing what soup can do.

coming up, ohio is a state of denial as surrogates keep trying to spin the polls in their favor. bob shrum responds to karl rove next. then ohio voters face long line and power outages in cities across cuyahoga county.

ohio senator nina turner has an update on how the state is still getting out the vote despite all the obstacles. and pop star katy perry joins president obama to get out the vote in wisconsin. we'll get the latest from the badger state. their your thought us with us on facebook and twitter using the # #edshow.

the world is watching ohio, and i've got a message for the world that's watching.

we are going to elect mitt romney and paul ryan president and vice president of the united states. >> welcome back to the "the ed show." that, of course, was ohio kasich last night. he and other conservatives, they're living basically i think in a state of denial. they are casting aside every poll and trying to create this narrative out there that they are just in great shape in the buckeye state. this latest poll tells a different story. the president leads in ohio by 6 points. it will be tough for mitt romney to make up that kind of ground in the final days. but you wouldn't know it by listening to the right wingers on fox. >> sean hannity, this date has flipped from the blue column to the red column. mitt romney will win ohio and he's going to win ohio easily. >> holy smokes. meanwhile, karl rove is acting like mitt romney has already got the thing all wrapped up. >> for the president to have wiped out his victory margin by

poor performance in the early voting and the republicans are going to take election day bodes well for romney for election day. i think ohio is going to be a squeaker, maybe an 80,000, 100,000 to 110,000 vote margin. >> let's turn to bob strum, mop the floor on that one. >> it's drivel. in the last ten days, 17,000 people have been polled in ohio. if you put all those polls together, even the republican leaning polls, the president has a lead outside the margin of error of those combine surveys. so he's in a very strong position. number two, he has a great ground game. i don't know what karl rove is talking about. if you look at that early voting, that early voting is working out very well for democrats. and in fact in florida where they tried to stop people from voting, it's made them mad and they go wait in lines two and three hours. thirdly you were right in the earlier segment.

there is no question that the auto industry is lethal for romney in ohio. that story was told during the summer. the bain story was told during the summer and he lives with it. by the way, he didn't write that headline. let detroit go bankrupt. but he adopted it. he doubled down on it in a television interview and said yes, that's exactly what i was saying. >> is there a motivational pitch being made by rove to make people feel good about the fact they're still with this thing in a big way in ohio and do you think it's going to be as close as he says it's going to be? >> i think nationally you're going to see some more movement toward the president. i think he's going to win ohio by four, five, six points. i think the nbc poll out there is probably right. but rove does have this belief that if you say you're going to win, then you're likely to win. the difficulty with that is even he's getting scared. he's done this interview with "the washington post" where he said the hurricane helped the president, it's hurt romney.

he was predicting romney at 279 electoral votes. that's not exactly a statement of confidence. >> here's president obama in mentor, ohio, talking about trust. here it is. >> when you elect a president, you don't know what kinds of emergency may happen. you don't know what problems he or she may deal with. but you do want to be able to trust your president. >> i mean the word "trust" has really been the narrative for the obama campaign for the last month, talking about can you trust what he says, can you trust what he's going to do. but most of all, it's the storm that has also, i think, helped out the president as well because its given him an opportunity to show how he can be an executive, to develop the trust that he's talking about to the point where chris christie is one of his best surrogates. >> well, you know, ed, there's a coherent narrative and you're right about the storm being the last piece of that narrative. people look at the president and look at the guy who took out

osama bin laden and the guy who handled this hurricane and they look at the guy who said he was going to do certain things, even if people didn't necessarily agree with all of them, he did what he said he was going to do. so you can trust him. mitt romney, on the other hand, he won't give them any specifics, won't tell anybody what his tax plan is going to do. and they say, i don't trust this guy not to take away my home interest mortgage deduction. >> karl rove is now saying that sandy helped the president politically. is he setting out the alibi? >> oh, sure. he had this big prediction in 2000 that bush was going to win by a huge margin. 340, 350 electoral votes, i forget the exact number. and after the election he said, oh, no, it was the drunk driving thing that derailed us and made the election so close. the truth is gore won the election. what we saw in the gore campaign we were making huge process. we were hurt by the drunk driving thing because it took the story away from medicare and social security. >> bob, how concerned are you about the shenanigans that's

been played out by the republicans in ohio of suppressing the vote, the long lines that your campaign with senator kerry experienced in 2004. i mean, is there a chance that president obama could lose ohio? >> i think it would be very tough because he has a good lead. they have a lawyers on the ground there. and you know, you're right about 2004. if you were a college student or an african-american, you sometimes had to wait eight or ten hours to vote. i don't think they're going to get away with stealing this election, they're going to try to delegitimate the president's victory afterwards. >> bob shrum, great to have you on a saturday night. next, from long lines to power outages, ohio voters are facing obstacles to get to the voting booth. state senator nina turner jones us with an update. then former president bill clinton. does it get any better than this? this guy has really worked overtime to help president obama in the campaign. we're going to take a look at

exactly how effective he's been. and he really went after mitt romney today in virginia. this is "the ed show" on msnbc.

you're watching tonight.

it is the final few days of early voting in the state of ohio. the lines are long. and now some voters in this key swing state face another issue, power outages. the effects of hurricane sandy are being felt as far west as cleveland, a democratic stronghold and crucial for president obama to win the buckeye state. nine polling stations in cuyahoga county are currently without power as "the cleveland plain dealer" reports locations for more than a dozen others can't be reached by telephone. yet local election officials are confident voting on election day will go as planned. >> we are working diligently to make sure that those are up and running. the utility companies have made a priority for those locations and we've been assured by monday night we should have power in all locations. >> so the big question is what happens if the power is not restored?

>> people can still vote even if ir is by a flashlight and chilly in those locations. >> i'm joined by ohio state senator nina turner. great to have you with us tonight. there's a few hurdles here that have to be done for president obama to take this state. but i want to go to this. earlier today ohio secretary of state was asked about the controversial new voting software installed in some counties, here's what he said. >> the reporting system and the actual counting system are not connected in any way and the results that anybody can get at home they're going to get them the same time i do on election night. soy we have a very transparent system. >> senator, what do you make of that? is the system transparent? >> certainly there are a lot of activists here in ohio who are concerned about that, namely the northeast ohio voter advocates. and what i will say is that they should not be experimenting in a presidential election. you know, the secretary of state had years -- previous years to try to experiment. so there is some concern there, the fact that this experiment is

taking place in 44 counties, ed. but we cannot take our eyes off the prize. other folks are working on this, we have our eye on this. but we're continuing to work. the man throws up so so much. it's hard to keep up with. you know, sos used to stand for secretary of state but here it stands for secretary of suppression. >> here's another comment he made about counting the absentee ballots. here it is. >> right now we're at 85% of them were sent have been returned. so that's a pretty good rate right now. we expect a lot of voters put them in the mail yesterday and today and we think that the number could actually be smaller than it was the last time. so we're not concerned about that. >> senator, your thoughts. >> ed, of course, he's not concerned. this secretary of state has taken a cavalier attitude when it comes to other folks' right and ability to vote. don't forget, this is the man who appealed all the way to the united states supreme court to try to take away the last three days of early voting from all ohioans including veterans. so i'm not surprised he's cool, calm and collected about it. but, again, in ohio we're going

to continue to push. we do have those last three days, folks were out in force today in ohio, especially in cuyahoga county. i was down at the board of elections with them. about 3100 people voted today. mothers, fathers, children, out in the cold. they were excited. it was electric. and then to have stevie wonder come by and vivica fox come by. so we are already in cuyahoga county holding strong despite his antics about it. he is the secretary of suppression. make no mistake about it. >> what about flashlights and paper ballots? does that kind of contingency plan inspire confidence? i mean, these are somewhat a primitive backup system. are they in place and do you believe they can be affordable? >> ed. we're going to overcome this. i'm happy to report there are only three polling places right now without electricity. director jane plat and her staff have been working very hard with our utility companies there. there are only three. i am confident, because she is confident, that they will be restored. here in cuyahoga county, we

already use paper ballots. we don't have the touch screens in cuyahoga county. so whether or not the electricity is there or not, those votes will be counted. jane platen is the cons mat professional and i trust her judgment. we're not talking about some politician in columbus who wants to suppress the vote, we're talking about a professional who cares that every vote is counted. we're going to do it, ed. >> senator turner, you're giving us new information here tonight. there are 17 locations the board has been unable to reach by telephone with 14 of those in cleveland. you're saying that that has been remedied? >> it has been remedied. i talked to director jane platen tonight. in cleveland proper itself every single polling location has its electricity restored. we will be ready, ed, on election day. >> the $64 question. is president obama going to win the state of ohio? >> he is going to win, ed. we're going to deliver. you know, they talked about the use of the word revenge," but,

you know, all of us get caught up from time to time. but the president has heart-soul agreement and that is what is going to deliver this election to him. ohioans, whether they're working class white males, working class african-american or hispanic and asian folks, we know that he has heart-soul agreement and he has been standing in the ready position for us for over four years, we are going to deliver the state of ohio for president barack obama. >> before i let you go here, tomorrow is souls to the polls, is that correct? >> yes. >> and this is going to be a big deal, isn't it? >> big deal. from 1:00 to 5:00 p.m. we fought hard to get sunday back. ed, the churches are ready to rock 'n' roll, and we're taking all souls to the polls tomorrow. >> churches rocking and rolling. great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> thanks so much. still to come, president clinton has been an effective surrogate for president obama this election season. could he have an effect on down-ballot races as well? and the romney campaign thinks they have a shot in wisconsin. president obama and katy perry

are trying to do something about that. we'll take you to the rally in the badger state ahead. but first, this is "the ed show," coming to you live from the heart of democracy plaza in new york city. ♪

♪ welcome back to "the ed show." thanks for staying with us tonight. it is no secret former president bill clinton is one of president obama's most valuable surrogates on the trail. president clinton is campaigning full force, no doubt, traveling through swing states and hitting the stump. mr. clinton stopped in chesapeake, virginia today. and even though his voice was hoarse, his message very clear. he laughed off republican criticism.

>> and i notice the only criticism from the other party that was publicly voiced came from michael brown, who was the head of fema when katrina struck, and he criticized the president for being too quick to respond to this tragedy. i say bring it on. more criticism like that. >> and he wasn't afraid to hammer the romney campaign over their continued use of the completely misleading jeep ad in the way that only bill clinton can do. >> when i was a kid and i got caught with my hand in a cookie jar, sort of shrugged my shoulders, and my face got red and i took my hand out of the cookie jar. this guy gets caught, he digs down and gets some more cookies. they actually increased the ad buy on an ad they knew was false because they think you're dumb.

i think you're smart and i think barack obama will be the next president. "the new york times," fivethirtyeight blog shows president obama ahead by less than one point. president clinton's appeal with white certain voters could be the final push the president needs in the state of virginia. let's bring in joy reid from thegrio.com. i want to say i've never seen a former president be so effective. i think a lot of people are going to be able to point to bill clinton and say this is one of the major reasons why president obama was re-elected if it happens. >> definitely. next to michelle obama, the most popular democrat in the country. nothing beats having a former president to affirm you. especially a guy like bill clinton who is a walking advertisement for good governance. people believe him on the economy. >> why is he doing it? why is he so fervored about it? >> you know, i think part of it is that his legacy is in a sense tied to barack obama's.

because a lot of what he's saying is let's go back to the clinton economic plans or the clinton rates on taxes. there's an affirmation of him in barack obama getting re-elected. and of course they did bring their two political powerhouse families together with the hiring of hillary clinton into the cabinet of barack obama. if you want to take the most cynical view of it, if hillary clinton wants to run in 2016, what better way to set that up. >> wait. we've got some huge loyalty markers that are going to be able to called in on this deal. >> absolutely. >> look, i think president clinton not only has he done the job for president obama, but the work that he's doing for -- on the down-ballot is just amazing. do you think he can swing some races? >> i think absolutely. if you look at -- i'm seeing popping into my inbox, smaller candidates like val demings who's running for a congressional seat, but she's getting help from bill clinton. he's working on those down

ballot races where he's working in palm beach county, voters who are older and mainly white and voters who think clinton is credible. he's a validater for these down-ballot candidates -- and people ticket split in florida. that's one place where they split tickets. and he's a guy who's saying keep that ticket together. give me this person to help president obama succeed. >> president obama is not going to lose the state of minnesota. i can speak with a little bit of authority and credibility on that one. so president clinton going to minnesota tomorrow, he's going to be there to try to defeat michele bachmann in supporting a guy named jim graves who is a self-made guy. this is a guy that came from a very humble background. he's a very successful businessman. in fact, joy, if the republicans wanted to get somebody to run, this is the kind of guy that they'd go after. >> yeah. >> what kind of effect can bill clinton have on a high-profile tea partier who has been very critical of the president

from day one, michele bachmann? >> think about what you just said. this candidate on the democratic side is a perfect democrat and a perfect dlc -- he's somebody that michele bachmann's softer supporters, whether it's women who are concerned with her position on women's issues, or republicans, there are a lot of republicans who look fondly at bill clinton, who might be thinking, you know what, michele bachmann was a little too extreme for me, but if clinton is validating this guy he might be my kind of democrat. >> all right, joy reid, thanks for joining us. coming up, katy perry helps president obama get out the vote in wisconsin. state senator lena taylor. stay tuned. voting in the badger state. this is "the ed show" live from democracy plaza in new york city. [ male announcer ] when was the last time something made your jaw drop? campbell's has 24 new soups

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welcome back to "the ed show" coming to you from democracy plaza. we have some of the best fans. on cable and the best fans on twitter. i love to brag about them. earlier today we asked our twitter followers to send us your photos of early voting so we can see what democracy looks like. enabean and her two daughters who were first time voters were proud. a proud chelsea from tennessee not only voted early but also voted for the first time. congratulations, chelsea. don't forget you can share your photos with us on twitter. using #msnbc2012. still to come they look to seal lena and ruth will join me.

and back on "the ed show"

tonight. in our survey i asked will romney's last-minute attacks on president obama work? 5% of you say yes, 95% of you say no. coming up they lock up the badger state and state senator lena taylor join me for an update on wisconsin voting. stay tuned. you're watching "the ed show" live from democracy plaza. and you're also looking at all the skating that takes place here at 30 rock. i was going to skate tonight but i've got sore ankles. i think i'll pass. we're coming right back. ♪

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welcome back to "the ed show." and in the big finish tonight, mitt romney is in big trouble in ohio so he really needs to win wisconsin. can he do it? tonight president obama is ahead in the polls. but romney has for rowed the lead in the last couple of months. today wisconsin become a hot campaign spot for both candidates. vice president biden talked to the voters at the red mug coffee shop in superior wisconsin, but he got upstaged in milwaukee. pop star katy perry performed some of her hit songs at the crowded rally before president obama spoke. she asked everybody there to donate to the red cross. she made this offer to encourage people to vote. >> if you're over 18, and you've got some real cool outfit you're going to wear on tuesday, you tweet that to me and i'll retweet you. all right? because i'm going to pull out

one for sure, as well. >> president obama didn't talk fashion. >> wisconsin, after four years as president, you know me. and so -- so, you know -- you know me. you've watched me age before your eyes. and you may not agree with every decision i've made. sometimes you may have been frustrated by the pace of change, but you know where i stand. you know what i believe. you know i mean what i say. and i say what i mean. >> we are joined tonight by wisconsin state senator lena taylor. also with us this evening ruth conif. political editor for the progressive magazine. great to have both of you with us tonight.

senator tyler, does the state of wisconsin know president obama better than they do mitt romney, and does that make a difference? >> we definitely know him and we definitely believe that honesty and trust is important. we can depend on what he says and he has followed through with that and the people have been turning out for him in great numbers in early voting, record numbers, better than in 2008. >> ruth, what do you see on the ground as far as early voting? how enthusiastic is it? >> well, it's interesting because as senator taylor knows, the republicans in our state legislature curtailed our early voting and ended on friday. it's half as long as there used to be and yet there are 5,000 more early votes in milwaukee. so the president is doing very well with the early voting and the enthusiasm is very very high. >> what about katy perry? senator tyler, i mean, could her performance and her appearance and her support of wearing a "forward" dress obviously supporting president obama, i mean it doesn't get any

more supportive than that on the stage? could this really motivate young voters to go for the president? >> listen, there is no question that it motivates young voters. you know, our motto in wisconsin also is "forward," so we loved that dress, and i have to tell you, some of my colleagues tweeted me pictures. i'm like don't you have any other pictures of the rally and of course the only one they had was katy in her "forward" dress. people were excited. >> ruth, you've got katy perry this evening and now bruce springsteen is going to be in madison on monday. is the obama campaign worried or just making sure? what's happening here? >> i don't think they're worried. the mean the marquette law school poll which is trusted by democrats and republicans alike has obama up by eight points in wisconsin. i think he feels confident here. but i think it's a nice way to close your campaign having tens and thousands of people cheering for

the president these days. i think that's why he's here for those great video clips. >> senator, why hasn't paul ryan delivered wisconsin in the polls? i mean, obviously anything that happened in the election, but the polling has never been favorable for the romney camp. and i think we can come to the conclusion just 50 hours away from election day that paul ryan doesn't seem to have had a big impact, if any, on the state of wisconsin. what do you make of that? >> i recall when he first chose paul ryan. the question was how did we feel about it. one of the things i said we were excited, those of us in wisconsin, for one reason or another. and from the democrats' perspective because we knew that paul ryan really does connect with the values of wisconsin. and him willing to so to say put grandmother over on the cliff with a voucher system in medicare does not play well, not just in wisconsin but even in his own district. so clearly wisconsin is going to go for president obama. he's protecting his relationship here, showing us that we matter and we've showed him that we care about him and we're going

to show up for him. >> ruth conniff, the president's campaign has had a running theme for months on end, very consistent about being the advocate and the fighter for the middle class. there was quite a middle class fight in wisconsin over the last two years. are those workers there with the president? is this what's going to put the president over the top? >> i think there's no question that wisconsin progressivism is going to be a key ingredient in this election and that the president is speaking very directly to wisconsin progressives and when he says sometimes you're a little disappointed by the face of change but you know where i stand and you know i'm with you, i think that's a message that resonates and that this election is about these fundamental values about protecting the middle class, people's jobs, labor rights, versus a very austere, brutal vision. and i think that does make a difference in wisconsin. people are attuned to that and they're really motivated.

>> senator taylor, are you concerned that governor walker might have some dirty tricks? >> we definitely need to making sure we have our attention on intimidation, voter suppression, those are the kinds of issues we've seen the republicans do here consistently. so we will have our eyes on that. we have a great robust voter protection plan, so those are concerns. i don't suggest that they aren't, ed. but people didn't vote governor walker in last time because of his policies. they voted him in mostly because they didn't really agree with recalls, but -- so i don't expect that he will be able to influence people's ability to get out to vote because we're going to stop him, and i don't think he's going to change people's opinions on president obama. >> and quickly, senator, will president obama the president win wisconsin? >> i feel very confident that he will win wisconsin. it doesn't mean that we're going to sit on our laurels. it means we'll get up and do what we have to do. we're going to get it